Everybody knew that Trump would win.

It’s funny but before Trump won the election everyone that I met laughed in my face when I said he would win. Just outright mockery, which I loved because I knew that it was going to make being so right all the sweeter. They would laugh in a jolly and condescending manner. A few of them would then ask me to explain why I thought Trump was going to win, so I’d explain it to them. As I spoke they’d do that eye-rolling thing to each other. Then they’d act bored that I was explaining to them the thing that they had asked me to explain to them.

The behavior patterns never changed. They were uniform across all sexes, races, nationalities, and political persuasions. Yes, conservatives had the same reactions as well. This wasn’t restricted to those hive-mind leftie loonies. Everybody was completely convinced that they were right and they were delighted to meet someone who they knew with such certainty was so wrong.

I have always been a contrarian. I remember in my early teens taking contrary opinions to my friends and teachers. I didn’t do it to stand out. I did it because I’ve always done a lot of thinking. I try and work things out. If someone tells me that such and such is true, my natural instinct is to take it apart to see if they’re right. If I can’t take it apart because I lack the knowledge then I go out and find the knowledge required to shoot them down. And then I shoot them down.

I discovered that people don’t like being shot down, which is weird because I love it when it happens to me. If someone shoots me down it means that I can happily jettison a prior opinion in favor of the new information. Which then leads to another curious situation. People like to rag on you for changing your opinion. They’ll say, (in that condescending and eye-rolling manner of course), that they remember when you used to hold x opinion and now you think that it’s y. So which is it, they’ll say, as if you can’t make up your mind.

This genuinely flummoxes me. Do they really think that the first opinion that you hold on something is destined to be your only opinion on a subject for your entire life? Do they actually think that changing your mind when you encounter new and superior information is an evident weakness? It appears to be the case. I assume that this is because the majority of people are emotionally attached to their opinions and beliefs. The loony-lefties go one better – they identify with their opinions and beliefs, which makes them rather challenging to change.

But back to Trump. Because this has been an extremely interesting experiment in group-think. I mentioned earlier that before the election I could not find a single person, (outside of the internet), who agreed with me that Trump would win. Well, now I can’t find a single person who ever thought that Trump would lose. I mention to people that I picked Trump’s victory extremely early and they nod their head, they look wise, and then they say that they did too.

Which creates something of a problem for me. Because as a contrarian I now find myself on the side of collective opinion. The only thing I can do as those around me congratulate each other on how early they picked Trump winning the election is to shut up at how prescient I was. Because listening to them I know that they are terrible liars but saying the same thing puts me in the same camp. All I can do is to cast around to see if anyone else is remaining silent because then I might discover a fellow contrarian.

But as I look I see that everyone is talking. I wonder what would happen if I piped up and said that I thought Trump would lose? I’d probably get the eye-rolling and the condescending looks again.

7 thoughts on “Everybody knew that Trump would win.

  1. Brandon

    Outstanding. Over here in the UK I told the Mrs Trump could win in December 2015 based on his communication skills, wrote in my journal in Jan I thought he would win, wobbled when he fell out with Cruz, then watched his second debate with Clinton and thereafter grew certain. Told everyone at work so I’d look a fool. I worked out the voting percentages as a land slide 52% (obviously wrong on that). Everyone I knew said he’d loose and not a fair few despised him. He won and I was delighted. Next time I was in the Office I was the prophet. I’ve never known a time that the political elites are so divorced from reality. PS “Pushing Rubber” is on my Christmas pile from myself. Thanks for the podcast Mate.

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    1. I hope your holiday reading is a pure delight. And your listening for that matter.

      Are you still the prophet or have they all convinced themselves that they also knew he would win?

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  2. Brandon

    At work it’s a case of people moving on to more apolitical subjects. Trump is old news and perhaps in fact it was only me raising it in the first place. Outside of work amongst family and friends I think everyone thinks I’ve gone bonkers. It’s all very well being right about him winning it but people can also see I like what Trump is proposing. Trump is considered awful or stupid by virtually everyone I know. In the UK it will take a good solid year of Trump successes before “I always thought he’d win” conversions materialise. Though it is obvious to me that as Trumps programme is moderate even on Trade only another international recession can prevent him having a good stint.

    By the way I put a bet on a Trump victory. Only the third time I’ve ever placed one. I wanted to have some skin in the game. 😉

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      1. Brandon

        Hi Adam, hoping you and the family have a great Christmas. I was going through my old posts on public websites and came across this “beauty” from September 2015. Enjoy:

        “Hi Dave,
        Thank you for that point about Mr Mark Moogalian I will look into that. On the other points we must of course agree not only to disagree but also if at all possible listen to each other. You start to rehearse a series of points around guns and racism which I might respond to at another time. I respect the fact that you are after all an American. Although, I think you may have miss-interpreted some of the points I made. I certainly do not think Americans carry their guns to overthrow the government…

        But forget all that lets talk Trump! We are obviously in primary season. This is the context of the “flocking” observation. Trump is doing very well in the primaries. There was Megan Kelly gotcha spat and the whole PC brigade descended on him and he basically said “to hell with you I have not got time for PC.” His ratings went up. The questioning was hopelessly bias; hence it is hard to see how he we will perform in future debates. When the liberal TV stations hold their debates it will be interesting how they go.

        I have formed a view on the candidates by going to what they say and not what people say they say. Trump has clearly galvanized the field set an agenda on illegal immigration and shook up the primaries. I have found myself resonating with him much to my surprise and I have tried to work out why and it is the fact that he says America is in decline, its dying on its feet and action is urgently required. Politicians tend to underplay negative messages with Trump its front and centre and it helps that it is true.

        The other elements of his pitch are actually quite attractive, particularly about being a deal maker. There is some way to go but I think he could conceivably win the republican nomination. So what follows is based on that scenario. To get to that point he will need to mature as a candidate, adjust his message, and deal with setbacks. If he did win the nomination all hell would break loose.

        Trump will have no compulsion to play the moderate polite flattering game. I can imagine him ripping into Hillary and if he prepares properly dragging out all the reasons she’s not fit for the Presidency which I think are too numerous to mention; but Benghazi is toxic. He will need policies, more of them than he has at the moment. You say:
        “If he wins he will need to take on the die-hard Democrats, Hispanics and blacks. The Hispanics and Blacks alone make up 40% of the electorate – I really can’t see them falling over themselves to swap from a black president to his polar opposite. Right now Clinton is ahead of the polls for pres. so more likely Trump would lose… ”

        Democratic support is 46-7% Republican is around the same 45-47%. At his imperial best with a jaded McCain and divisive Palin Obama got 53% and last time 51% against a beleaguered Romney despite the fact that Obama hardly turned up in the debates. Probably the IRS’ campaign against the Tea Party networks and activists helped. Indeed with African-Americans making up 12% of the vote, Hispanics 10% and other minorities making up perhaps 5%. Whites account for 71%. See http://www.brookings.edu/resea

        All you need to win therefore is 51%, essentially Trump needs to get 4% of those who voted democratic last time to vote Republican. Not the hard core democrat voters but the ones that are floaters. The white section of the population is reducing percentage wise to around 69-70% of the population. If you watch Trumps speeches he often gets black people to take his platform and talk about law and order themes; murdered loved ones. Expect this to continue at some point he will turn on “black lives matters” with an “all lives matters” case and “I’m going to clean up the drugs gangs” law and order pitch to dislodge despairing inner city voters. The lawlessness in black communities controlled by democrats is a real issue for those communities. |It’s the Giuliani option if you like. It’s likely that, and the state of the Democratic ticket, will determine the outcome.

        Here’s the thing: Trump’s message is based on a withering critique of the decline of the country and the need for urgent action. What will Clinton bring to those communities; more entitlements, decay, dependency, welfare versus jobs, self reliance and law and order? If Trump can grow his credibility for high office it is possible he could dislodge enough whites and a few blacks and Hispanics, as well has those who crave an end to gun crime and hate the race baiters.

        On Clinton – and I will probably be hopelessly wrong but here goes…she’s dead in the water. E-mail gate won’t go away; Benghazi’s toxic and Trump will dig it up again and again. I also think she has made a lot of enemies on her own side. They are circling at the moment and may pounce. If Trump gets the nomination he will crush her in the debates. Hillary is loved by Hollywood and Feminists and will raise tonnes of money but if she does get the nomination the right will be fired up and will over look all of Trumps failings to get Hillary.

        A billionaire business man versus a serial liar, financially corrupt, incompetent ex-Secretary of State; remember Trump’s message is Make American Better again, rebuild the defences rebuild trade, and make good deals. He’s running against Obama and Clintons records. I think she will take the rap for Obama failures.

        The democratic primary is a little like the UK labour leadership hustings the pickings are not very tasty. If Biden does have to come in for her I think there will be panic which will feed a “time for a change” theme. I will stay up to 3am in the morning just to watch Trump lace into her corrupt record.

        So having said all this, what could prevent Trump? He has to evolve his message and get tighter on his policy positions, reach outside of his 25-30% core, if he does not get the machinery on the ground in place, and at some point he needs to reach out to the Republican failures in congress – they are more scared of Trump than Hillary – some of them might actually prefer Hillary to Trump!
        Also the democratic machine is utterly unprincipled, controls 2/3rds of the press and TV and has got used to getting its own way; particularly on the culture wars. Some of the strategists on the Democrat side will be planning how to hit Trump: “Turncoat”, “sell out” will be a theme, “you can’t trust him”, he’s an “egomaniac”, etc., and best of all a “misogynist”.

        The liberal social and economic policy record is just useless: African American families and marriages survived slavery, the civil war, Democrat Jim Crow but not the “War on Poverty”. Hillary has to be running on more of the same. I think Trump’s tone is about right: “the American dream is dead but I want to make it bigger and better.”

        Please don’t get me wrong Trump is not a social conservative, not into small government and outside of core themes and the border wall, not that clear on what he will implement but I can see him doing deals with congress and getting a program through. He often uses the term “Killer” to describe the business associates he has. I think it might be good to see his administration in the White House. No more mediocrity, slow decline and capitulation.
        That’s what resonates with me a UK citizen that cannot even vote. But a defeat for liberalism will be of global service. If not Trump then anyone but Jeb: seriously I’d go Cruz or Fiorina with Scott Walker an outsider. Ben Carson I like.

        Lastly, the business class and lobbies will also feel uncomfortable with a Trump presidency as he is a maverick, a billionaire (that’s good) but an outsider that will want to change stuff (bad)…again it will be interesting to see how Trump deals with this. He simply may not be up to it. But Obama was a nonentity of a senator with no governance, no deal making skills and a highly dubious radical black background and he rebranded himself as a “unifying, technocratic”, “non-race”, and orator of “hope and change….””

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  3. Brandon

    Indeed it is me I posted it on Conservative Women site. I’ve made the odd edit on grammar and spelling, I was surprised myself when I came across it. Its so confident! LOL. Peace. Hey, hang in there. Create your audience by being totally sure of yourself. You create the gamer gate in the rafting community. Do not flinch do not care. You redefine your opponents don’t let them define you.

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